Picking Great Gold Stocks
Adam Hamilton July 1, 2016 3580 Words
One of the primary keys to success in investment and speculation is picking the right stocks to trade. Thatís no mean feat, as it takes great effort, expertise, and time to winnow the whole field down to the likely winners with the best fundamentals. Gold stocksí dazzling market-leading performances so far this year have sparked much interest in what factors to consider to pick great stocks in this red-hot sector.
Iíve been in the financial-newsletter business for 16 years now, after founding my company Zeal LLC way back in early 2000. I needed to do extensive markets and individual-stocks research to support my own personal speculation and investment, so I figured why not share it so others can benefit as well. Since then Iíve researched and written 711 web essays, 192 monthly newsletters, and 695 weekly newsletters.
The primary mission of my research has always been to drive profitable real-world trading. If financial-market research doesnít actually help multiply wealth, why even bother? The stock trades resulting from these 16 years of hard work were all recommended in real-time in our newsletters as the buys and sells were actually made. Our cumulative realized stock-trade count is now up to 325 in our monthly and 506 in our weekly.
831 real-world stock trades fully disclosed to, fully accountable to, and fully auditable by our subscribers over such a long span of time has been an unparalleled learning experience. Like every speculator we won some and lost some, but our overall track record is outstanding. All 831 Zeal newsletter stock trades ever closed, including all losers, have averaged impressive annualized realized gains of 16.6% since 2001!
Since our first newsletter was published on August 1st, 2000, the compound annual rate of return of the benchmark S&P 500 has only been 2.2%. The S&P 500ís absolute return over that long intervening secular-bear span is 41.6%. But 16.6% compounded annually since then equates to a radically-better 1152.6% return. Thereís no doubt that studied stock picking and trade timing can vastly outperform the indexes!
Since general stocks have been mired in a secular bear since early 2000, the great majority of our Zeal trades have been gold stocks and silver stocks. The precious metals are one of the best-performing sectors during sideways-grinding general stock markets. So one of the most common questions I get is how do I go about picking great gold stocks? What factors do I consider in trying to sort the best from the chaff?
These are tough questions to answer. So much time on task, so many trades, so much experience both winning huge profits and suffering vexing losing streaks are hard to distill down into a book, let alone an essay. Itís hard to even know where to start after tens of thousands of hours of research on markets and individual stocks. Nevertheless, I get this question so often that I should at least attempt to address it.
So hereís a brief overview of key things I look at when comparing and contrasting gold stocks attempting to find fundamentally-superior ones to trade. And ďgold stocksĒ used in this essay applies equally to ďsilver stocksĒ. My stock-picking methodology is a perpetual work in progress. Iím always learning and striving to improve it, and there are plenty of traders out there with long track records better than mine.
Major-ETF Inclusion. Ask any prospector where the best place to find gold is, and heíll claim where itís already been found! Great gold stocks are very similar. So one of the first things I check when Iím researching individual stocks is what ETFs they are included in. The companies creating the leading exchange-traded funds and the indexes behind them have big research departments full of experienced analysts.
The dominant leading gold-miner, gold-junior, and silver-miner ETFs today are GDX, GDXJ, and SIL. They are the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF. Being considered worthy of inclusion in these elite ETFs truly is the gold standard in precious-metals stocks. So if a miner or explorer is large enough, I always check for ETF inclusion.
I certainly donít only trade gold stocks included in major ETFs, but when one is I know it has been vetted by leading expert researchers. While some of the stocks they include perplex me, the vast majority are truly the best in the business. ETF inclusion can be a self-fulfilling prophecy too. Since most investors and speculators settle with ETFs instead of individual stocks, their ETF buying drives up componentsí prices.
Market Capitalization. If I had to pick a single-most-important factor for picking great gold stocks, Iíd actually choose market capitalization. That may sound shocking, as how could market cap be even more important than production, costs, or reserves? The reason is market caps ultimately distill everything that all traders collectively know about any gold stocks, and govern their potential for big near-future gains.
When buying a house, the first thing you have to consider is price. It makes no sense to fall in love with a perfect house you simply canít afford. Gold stocksí market capitalizations, especially when they are considered relative to each other, give great insights into how valuable their mines and projects actually are. Market caps are the ultimate form of relative ranking resulting from actual real buy-sell votes from all traders!
When two gold miners with similar production levels have significantly-different market caps, the one with the higher market-assigned value almost always has the superior fundamentals. Investigating why market-cap differences of similar producers have arisen is one of the most rewarding parts of gold-stock picking. Market-cap premiums often reveal superior mines, projects, or managements than similar peers have.
Market capitalizations also greatly affect future gains. The higher the market cap of any stock, the more capital inflows and buying will be necessary to drive it significantly higher. Like oil supertankers, the largest gold stocks have big market-cap inertia and will ultimately see smaller gains than their smaller peers. On the other end of this spectrum, super-tiny gold stocks will often prove too illiquid and risky to trade.
When comparing all gold stocks by market cap, there is a sweet spot of small (but not tiny) to mid-size gold miners that have the best potential to see the greatest gains in their stock prices assuming their fundamentals are sound. The higher market caps among this optimal gold-miner size usually have the most-superior fundamentals, but the lower-market-capped stocks will be easier for new buying to push higher.
Jurisdiction and Diversification. Unfortunately mining companies are exceptionally vulnerable to local government over-regulation, over-taxation, and even confiscation. Unlike most industries, gold minesí production canít be shifted across borders to flee to more-friendly countries. So I always look to see where gold stocksí mining operations and major exploration projects are located. Some countries are too risky for me.
Mexico and Canada are probably the best countries in the world to mine gold in. Their mining laws are well-established and their governments generally donít harass miners too much. The US is safe, but over-regulation and ludicrously-extensive permitting processes make America somewhat less attractive. Plenty of countries in South America, Asia, and even Africa are fine, but property rights and rule of law are less certain.
But some countries often ruled by Marxist dictators have ugly histories of forcing gold miners into paying punitive taxes and royalties under the implicit threat of mine seizures. Like much of stock picking, that knowledge simply comes from experience. Weíve owned gold miners in the past that have suffered major predation by local governments, so it makes no sense to buy other miners with heavy exposure to them.
This great geopolitical risk inherent in static gold mining can be diversified through mines and projects spread across multiple jurisdictions. Smaller gold stocks only have one mine or project, so diversification is impossible. But larger ones have multiple mines and projects reducing the threat posed by any one government. Cross-country diversification does add significant costs as well though, it can be a double-edged sword.
Production. Gold stocks are naturally in the business of mining gold, so their current and projected production levels from mine expansions or new mines coming online are exceedingly important. The more gold companies produce, the greater their operating cash flows, profits, and therefore ultimately stock-price gains. But with larger operations also come bigger market caps, weighing down upside potential.
Within that sweet spot of smaller-to-mid-size gold-miners, I like to compare minersí production relative to their market caps. While this ratio means little in isolation, considered across a group of miners it helps reveal which are relatively expensive or cheap. As long as those miners with lower market caps per ounce produced have sound fundamentals, they often have greater upside potential than their more-popular peers.
Production trends are also important to consider. If a gold minerís production is moderating or retreating for anything beyond a well-telegraphed few-quarter span, it suggests depleting mines and lower coming stock prices. Sometimes gold miners have good reason for lower production, such as planned digging through lower-grade ore to get to higher-grade ore or temporary disruptions due to mine-expansion projects.
Growing production is viewed highly favorably by traders and portends higher stock prices, so miners with consistent output growth are prized. Managements often provide guidance early every year for their coming expected production, making it easy to find expected growth. Big growth surges driven by new mines coming online are often great opportunities to see fast stock-price appreciation around their openings.
Since itís far easier to simply consider reported current-quarter production instead of wading through quarterly filings, annual reports, and news releases to get updates on new mines nearing production, many investors overlook new-mine openings. Gold stocks often see major gains in the year or so that straddles new mines spinning up to commercial production, from about 3 quarters before to 1 quarter after.
A high-potential subset of this phenomenon occurs when explorers successfully manage to make that rare transition from explorer to producer. Since gold deposits now take 10 to 15 years to prove out, permit, and construct mines, most traders lose interest long before these plans come to fruition. So finding an explorer on the verge of opening its first mine in the next year or so can be a major upside opportunity.
Costs. Gold miners naturally have no control over the price of gold, their selling price is set by the whims of global gold traders. And gold-mining cash flows and profitability are totally determined by the difference between prevailing gold prices and minersí costs. So gold minersí cost levels are the critical driver along with the gold price of their operating cash flows and profits. Costs determine profits leverage to gold.
Comparing gold minersí costs, especially all-in sustaining costs, helps determine the better ones to buy. And that isnít as simple as low costs are good and high costs are bad. Lower costs are great if gold is expected to go lower, as it makes for fundamentally-stronger miners generating more cash flow and better able to withstand gold corrections or bear markets. Low-cost miners are bid to premiums on weak gold.
While I prefer lower-cost miners since I like fundamentally-strong gold stocks, higher costs actually have greater upside profits leverage to gold-price increases! So if you expect a major gold bull or strong gold upleg, higher-cost miners actually have more upside potential. This seemingly-counterintuitive outcome is easy to understand with a simple example. Consider two hypothetical gold miners, LowCost and HighCost.
LowCost produces gold at AISC of $600 per ounce, so at $1300 gold itís earning hefty operating profits of $700 per ounce. Meanwhile HighCostís AISC are $1100, so its $1300-gold profits are far smaller at just $200. If gold powers 54% higher to $2000 in a major bull, LowCostís profits double from $700 to $1400. But those 100% earnings gains are dwarfed by HighCostís soaring from $200 to $900, a vast 350% rocketing!
Since stock prices ultimately reflect underlying corporate profits, higher-cost miners have much greater upside potential in a gold bull than their fundamentally-stronger lower-cost peers. Bigger profits growth equals bigger stock-price gains. So donít avoid owning a gold stock simply because its costs are higher than its peers, as long as theyíre still low enough to weather a major gold selloff. Costs are critical for profits.
Financials. Gold-mining costs directly feed another major factor to consider, gold minersí financials. Cash flows generated from operations are important to consider when picking great gold stocks. They are usually a better indication of gold minersí fundamental strength than accounting earnings since the latter can be obscured by noncash writedowns or gains. Strong operating cash flows eventually drive strong profits.
I also always look at gold minersí cash on hand, and debt levels and debt service. Just like with any individual, the more cash a gold miner has in the bank the easier itís able to weather any unforeseen adverse shocks. They could be a gold selloff, a mine-production problem, or government harassment. Higher cash balances also position gold miners to expand existing mines or buy new deposits and mines.
While gold miners generally finance major mine builds with equity instead of debt, debt levels and quarterly payments relative to operating cash flows are also important to consider. While itís rare to find gold miners with hefty debt payments relative to cash flows, I avoid them. Debt can point to another major potential problem, hedging. Banks often require gold miners to hedge production to secure a big loan.
Hedging, locking in the future selling price for gold produced, is very undesirable. Investors buy gold stocks because they want leveraged upside exposure to gold-price advances, and hedging sells away that future upside! Hedging is a big black mark against a gold miner in my book, although I will still buy companies that hedge if their hedging is a small percentage of their production required for a mine-build loan.
Reserves. While gold reserves are important since they are necessary for gold miners to maintain their production, many investors overweight them. Proving up gold resources to reserves is very expensive, requiring big drilling and assaying campaigns. So as long as miners have sufficient reserves for the next couple years or so, itís usually not beneficial to shareholders to spend capital to aggressively grow reserves.
Large reserves are more common in open-pit operations, where ore bodies are close to the surface and relatively easy to drill. Since the ore grades are so low in open-pit heap-leach mining, companies often market the value of their deposits in terms of their large reserves. But underground high-grade mines often only have a year or two of reported reserves because drilling too far ahead slows actual mining progress.
Dividing reserves by the current annual production gives an estimate of mine life. While more reserves granting a longer mining life make a company stronger fundamentally, they arenít a major consideration for picking great gold stocks. In many ways the length of time gold miners have been producing, which shows their experience and longevity, is more important than showing off a massive reserves number.
Management. Managementsí track records are very important. Like in any industry, the longer that a management team has been running gold mines the more experience it has. And that eventually leads to success much of the time. So I consider what top managers have accomplished in the past, even if it was at another mining company. Proven battle-tested people are far more likely to produce excellent results!
For stock-price appreciation, managementsí ability to manage investorsí expectations conservatively is important. Management teams that consistently under-promise and over-deliver are far less likely to spook traders into selling en masse. So how managements perform on actual production and project advancement compared to the expectations they set in press releases is certainly worth considering.
Those press releases themselves also reveal much about how managements view and respect their shareholders. Great gold miners publish very-transparent quarterly results, full of numbers and year-over-year comparisons easy to parse visually. That builds trust. But Iíve seen far too many gold miners release quarterly results that are devoid of much important information. I wonder if theyíre hiding something.
While all companies naturally try to present their news and operating results in the best-possible light, deep data is always available from their quarterly filings with government agencies. So obscuring it through fact-light or poorly-presented news releases might fool a casual investor, but it wonít stop a real analyst from finding the truth in 10-Qs or 10-Ks. Managements being opaque can be a major warning sign.
Market Timing and Technicals. No matter how great gold minersí fundamentals happen to be, they are all dependent on gold to see major stock-price moves. Itís relatively rare to see even great gold stocks move higher if gold strength isnít lending them a bid. After all my years trading this sector, I suspect something way up around 80% of gold stocksí price behavior is driven by the gold price action over any span analyzed!
While the fundamentally-superior gold miners will usually outperform in any given gold rally, they really do need gold to rally to see major gains. So picking great gold stocks in a vacuum oblivious to the big market trends dominating their performance is an exercise in futility. While Iím constantly researching to understand individual gold stocksí fundamentals, I try and wait to buy positions until gold is likely to climb.
Technicals are a critical consideration in picking great gold stocks too. Buying high is rarely wise no matter how awesome any gold miner may be. If a stock has just rallied dramatically, chances are it is due to mean revert and retreat a bit. But if a stock has just plunged, it is probably due for a big mean-reversion rebound. The best time to buy great gold stocks with superior fundamentals is right after they sell off!
When I make new trades, I usually narrow down my buy list to twice as many gold and silver stocks as Iím actually planning on buying. Since they all have great fundamentals after being picked out of the gold-stock universe using the considerations above, Iíll often attempt to buy low by adding positions in the particular gold miners out of my finalists with the weakest technicals. Buying low is absolutely crucial!
Naturally that means gold-stock pullbacks and corrections driven by similar moves in gold are the best times to add gold stocks within ongoing bull markets. And the upside potential at those lows is dwarfed by that at major secular lows like this Januaryís. If you are buying gold stocks when they are high and you are excited, thatís the wrong time. The best time to buy is when they have just sold off and you are nervous!
Well, these are the basics of picking great gold stocks. I like to feed as many gold stocks as I can find into big spreadsheets, fill them with data on each company, and sort them based on all the things discussed here and other lesser considerations. Like any endeavor of learning, the more time you spend deeply immersed in gold stocks the better you will understand them and the easier it will be to pick the winners.
Realize that most investors and speculators simply donít have the time, interest, training, necessary skillset, or temperament to put in the vast time required to gain the knowledge and experience essential to excelling in trading any particular sector. So for most traders, itís far more efficient to hire experts to do this hard work for them. The most-cost-effective way to benefit from expert analysis is through newsletters.
At Zeal Iíve literally spent tens of thousands of hours studying and researching the markets, individual stocks, and trading. This experience is priceless, and almost impossible to replicate due to the extreme time investment necessary to get it. Itís far more efficient to consult with a doctor than spending years going to medical school to become one yourself! You can cheaply and easily put our expertise to work for you.
Weíve long published acclaimed weekly and monthly newsletters for contrarians. Theyíve helped our subscribers really multiply their wealth over the years with many hundreds of gold-stock and silver-stock trades. Our newsletters draw on our vast experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain whatís going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks. For just $10 an issue, you can learn to think, trade, and thrive like a contrarian. Subscribe today before the next big gold-stock buying opportunity!
The bottom line is picking great gold stocks requires a lot of work. Many factors feed into the process of separating the likely elite winners with the best fundamentals from the average rest of the herd. There are no shortcuts, itís a long painstaking process to learn about individual gold stocks and compare them with each other. But the resulting fruits are awesome, lower-risk trades with superior upside potential.
And itís not just one thing that makes a great gold-stock pick, but the interplay of many things. Fitting all these puzzle pieces together to feed profitable trades is an art that only comes through years of actual real-world trading experience. If you have the time and mindset to develop this skillset, youíll be richly rewarded by the markets. But if you donít, piggybacking off the research from established experts is the way to go.
Adam Hamilton, CPA July 1, 2016 Subscribe at www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm